College Football 25 simulation: Can BYU keep a good thing going at Baylor?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU made a statement in its Big 12 opener last week, upsetting then No. 13 Kansas State 38-9.
Can the Cougars build off their early season momentum and stay unbeaten when they visit Baylor on Saturday?
It’s a big challenge for BYU, which has yet to win a Big 12 road game since joining the league last year.
The Bears are coming off an emotional overtime loss to Colorado, one where Baylor gave up a Hail Mary on the final play in regulation before losing in the extra session.
What will happen in this Big 12 matchup?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game — and the outcome was surprising.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.
For BYU, the biggest adjustment came at running back, with LJ Martin out again. Hinckley Ropati was thrust into the starting spot at RB.
For Baylor, there was a change at quarterback. While Dequan Finn is the Bears’ top quarterback on the video game, I switched it to Sawyer Robertson to reflect who has started for Baylor in its last two games after Finn got hurt.
The uniforms both teams will be wearing Saturday were also implemented into the simulation — BYU is going with an all-white uniform with royal trim and royal facemasks, while it’s a Gold Out for the Bears, which includes yellow jerseys, helmet and pants.
The actual score: BYU 38, Kansas State 9
College Football 25 simulation final score: Kansas State 24, BYU 17 (OT)
My analysis: Whodathunk this would happen? The Cougars stunned the Wildcats in real life by scoring 31 of their points in a seven-minute span, earning a win over a top 15 program.
While the simulation did look favorably on BYU — the Cougars stayed close and forced overtime — it still had Kansas State coming out the victor, which was inaccurate, though it what was expected going into the matchup.
Final score: BYU 38, Baylor 17
Key sequence: There were a few critical plays early in the fourth quarter that turned this from a 7-point game into a three-score lead in under a minute.
First, with BYU facing a fourth and 2 at the Baylor 25, the Cougars went for it — instead of kicking a field goal that would have given them a 20-10 lead — and Jake Retzlaff found Keanu Hill for a 9-yard gain and a first down.
After another Hill reception moved the ball to the 1-yard line, Hinckley Ropati scored on a 1-yard run to make it 24-10 with 7:42 to play.
On the ensuing drive, BYU’s Jakob Robinson intercepted Robertson at the Baylor 27, then returned the pick 13 yards to the Bears 14.
That set up another quick score, as Chase Roberts caught a 1-yard TD pass two plays later to extend the lead to 31-10.
At that point, the Cougars were clearing in charge — and it all happened in the blink of an eye.
How the simulation transpired: BYU took control early in this one, scoring on its first three drives — perhaps Baylor was a bit down to start after their heartbreaking loss to Colorado last week?
In a scene reminiscent of his interception against Kansas State, Harrison Taggart came up with a pick on Baylor’s first drive of the game, setting BYU up with solid field position at the Bears 39.
Retzlaff extended the drive with a 33-yard pass to Hill on third down to get the Cougars inside the red zone, then he hit Kody Epps for a 12-yard touchdown to make it 7-0 BYU.
Baylor went three and out on its next three drives, while the Cougars continued to capitalize on the opportunities afforded them.
Retzlaff again converted a third and long on BYU’s second possession — this one a 31-yard pass to Keelan Marion — and it set up a Will Ferrin 28-yard field goal with three minutes left in the first quarter.
The Cougars then pushed their lead to 17-0 early in the second quarter, when Marion caught a 22-yard pass and Ropati scored from 6 yards out for BYU’s second touchdown.
Baylor eventually got its passing game going later in the second, though it had a promising possession end with no points after BYU’s Blake Mangelson came up with a stop behind the line when Baylor tried to convert a fourth and inches at the BYU 32.
The Bears did score before the half, though — a 25-yard from pass Sawyer Robertson to Monary Baldwin got Baylor inside the BYU 10 with under a minute until halftime, and Robertson capitalized by scoring on a 5-yard quarterback draw to make it 17-7.
In the second half, the Bears made it a one-score game with a time-consuming drive that ended in a 19-yard Isaiah Hankins field goal. The Cougars defense prevented a touchdown by stopping back-to-back runs on second and third downs from the 1 for no gain.
BYU countered with its own clock-eating drive, which extended into the opening minutes of the fourth quarter, and the aforementioned fourth-down conversion led to Ropati’s second touchdown of the day. That was followed by Robinson’s interception and Roberts’ touchdown — all in under a minute — to make it 31-10.
The Bears tried to rally — they added a 14-yard touchdown grab from Ketron Jackson Jr. with under three minutes left — but after BYU recovered an onside kick, the Baylor defense allowed Ropati to score on a long touchdown run.
Mitch Harper then sealed the victory with an interception in the end zone on Baylor’s final drive.
Star players: Ropati had 12 carries for 55 yards and scored three touchdowns to pace the BYU ground attack.
Hill led BYU with five receptions for 74 yards, while Epps had five catches for 39 yards and the game’s opening touchdown.
Retzlaff threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns, and perhaps most importantly, didn’t turn the ball over.
That wasn’t the case for Robertson. The Baylor quarterback threw for more yards, 254, and accounted for two touchdowns — one passing, one running — but he also threw three interceptions. Two of those came in the red zone.
Defensively, Tyler Batty had six tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks for the Cougars.
Key stats: The Bears actually outgained the Cougars in total yards, 362 to 313.
Baylor, too, had more rushing yards, 108 to 88.
BYU, though, was slightly better on third down — 5 of 10 compared to 6 of 13 — and never turned the ball over.
The Bears’ three turnovers, plus a turnover on downs deep in BYU territory, were the catalyst in this one.
My analysis: This definitely is a bit of an unrealistic margin of victory for the Cougars, one that would surprise me greatly if it happened in real life.
In the video game, the Cougars played clean football and made the Bears pay for their mistakes, and considering those circumstances, the win isn’t surprising.
In reality, though, I think Saturday’s actual contest will be a close, interesting game that could go either way.