What’s at Stake in the Debate Between Tim Walz and JD Vance? | Opinion

Reportedly, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president, is nervous about the VP debate tonight. But really, the one who should be nervous is Republican nominee Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH).
There is little evidence that running mates in general have much of an impact on the election, although this election is very close so anything might matter. Dick Cheney’s strong debate performances in 2000 and 2004, and Pence’s strong performance against Tim Kaine in 2016 might have contributed to the very narrow victories their parties achieved, although that’s more anecdotal than analytical. The worst vice-presidential debate performance was probably that of Dan Quayle, running mate to George H.W. Bush, in 1988. When Quayle, who was perceived as callow and too young, stated that he had the same level of experience as JFK did when he became president, his Democratic opponent, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, pounced, stating, “Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”
But Bush-Quayle went on to win the election.
Nonetheless, Quayle’s experience is a cautionary tale for Vance. Quayle, who had a poor initial roll out as Bush’s running mate, only solidified his reputation as unprepared for the presidency. He became a national punchline and after the 1992 election loss, had no political future beyond a very brief run for the presidency in 2000.
Like Quayle, Vance has made a poor initial impression on the American people. According to poll aggregates, Vance has the lowest approval ratings of any of the major party nominees on the national ticket. Walz, by comparison has the highest approval ratings out of the four nominees. While Vance certainly has his fans, he has been haunted by past statements and writings that either offend major parts of the electorate or paint him as a rank opportunist.
Vance, a graduate of Yale Law School, was a strong debater in his campaign for an Ohio Senate seat. But his campaign overall was lackluster. He won the general election by about 5 percent, in a state where Republicans frequently win statewide office by more than triple that margin.
If Vance has a poor showing in the debate tonight, he will cement this poor public perception. If Trump then loses the election, Vance can be scapegoated with the loss. Even if Trump wins, Vance may, like Quayle, may be seen as a burden.
Currently, Vance’s prospects as VP are not great, with little chance of being given substantial responsibility in a Trump White House. There are indications that Trump is regretting is pick. During the presidential debate, when Trump was asked about Vance’s statement that Trump would veto a bill codifying Roe v. Wade, Trump replied, “Well, I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness.”
That’s hardly a vote of confidence.
To avoid political ignominy and restore his standing with Trump and the public, Vance needs a strong showing in tonight’s debate. But this requires help from Walz, who despite his professed concerns, has debated many times in his eight previous runs for office (this is only Vance’s second campaign.) Can Vance take advantage of a Walz misstep, as Bentsen did in the debate with Quayle in 1988? Can he lure Walz into a misstep? Trying too hard in the debate can also backfire, as it did for Tim Kaine in his 2016 debate with Mike Pence. Kaine, a genial dad-energy politician (not unlike Tim Walz) tried to go on the attack against Pence. But Pence, a long-time radio host, was nonplussed, and Kaine came off as mean.
Of course, Walz also wants to represent Harris well, but he does not have political ambitions beyond this race. Walz only needs not to lose. Vance, who is only 40, obviously has further ambitions and this debate is crucial. A debate win might establish him as the standard-bearer of Trumpism. A poor public showing might condemn him to political footnote—even if his party wins.
Aaron Mannes is a Lecturer and Research Associate at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, where he did his PhD dissertation on the national security role of the vice president. His ongoing research on the vice presidency can be found here. X: @awmannes Substack: @downthehall
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.